Magoo's Picks

133^rd running of the Kentucky Derby

Start with this. There are probably eight horses that could win this year’s race, and none would be a complete surprise. And there are several who appear to not even belong. But hey, it’s the Derby, so who cares, a once in a lifetime opportunity for lightning to strike. My numbers are as follows:

Street Sense (97/100) – Last year’s champ, he loves the Churchill track, and he’s working like he’s something special. Still, I’m not sure if he just doesn’t throw in a great race every time he runs. He’s been beaten before, and if he doesn’t get a clean, uneventful trip, he could be beaten again.

Curlin 94/100 – I’m always trying to beat the favorite, and this is no exception. His race in Arkansas was impressive, finishing well, but in front of a mediocre field. He’s widening in the deep stretch in each of his races, but again, what’s been behind him, and with his inside post, he’ll have to go hard to stay out of trouble. He could be the next great one, and if he is, I’m wrong.

Nobiz Like Showbiz (94/100) – I like this one a lot, even if he hasn’t show really great improvement this year. He’s a big, overgrown kid that won’t be intimidated, on the brink of mental maturity, and who’s as honest with his ability as they come. The trainer has been there before (Funny Cide), and could be again. Pedigree is the question mark.

Hard Spun (94/100) – The mystery horse of the entire bunch. He’s done just about everything asked, and even more, as witnessed by his outstanding work earlier in the week. Secretariat needed to be worked hard, and the results were outstanding. Same case here? He appears to have all the tools – speed, stamina, and a willingness to finish.

Great Hunter (92/100) – Stopped dead while making a winning move in the Blue Grass. Had he won it, he would be the talking horse of the race, but he’s another who is purely blue collar and has done nothing exciting. Maybe a win in the Blue Grass would have fulfilled that requirement. Looking for a big effort here, in spite of the post position.

Scat Daddy 90/100 – His big wins this year were workmanlike, nothing more, but they were wins. Little about him is exciting, but he can get the job done. In this field, the winner will have to do something eye-catching, and we haven’t seen it from him as yet.

Dominican (86/100) – Has only two races this year, both on poly track, and both very nice come-from-just-off-the-pace wins. If he can transition to a dirt track, he could be the sleeper we all need.

Dominican (86/100) – Has shown a lot of improvement from his two-year-old campaign, including an impressive score in the Blue Grass last out. Outside post should not bother his running style, though it’s been quite a while since a gelding won this race.

Tiago (84/100) – Déjà vu all over again, the half-brother to Giacamo who surprised everyone a few years back could be straight from the time machine. Although he was no threat to Great Hunter earlier in the year, he appears to be coming into his own. His style requires that he come from far back, and with as much genuine talent in front of him, it will be a different story than his win in the Santa Anita Derby.

Cowtown Cat (84/100) – Speed is always dangerous, although history says it’s a rare day in May when a horse wires the Kentucky Derby. He’s bred to the nines, and has run some good races, but at a tier or two below where the rest of the good ones in the Derby have been competing. There for a while, but not at the end.

Stormello (83/100) – Loved him earlier in the year, but an over zealous trainer may have compromised his chances. He has the speed to be a factor, how long, I don’t know. He’s been out of competition for a while, which is not good for a front-runner. You’ll hear his name during the race call.

Any Given Saturday (82/100) – Has kept some good company thus far, and always is there at the end, scrapping and fighting, but coming up a little short. He’s been beaten by too many of the top ones to make me believe he can beat them all Saturday.

Circular Quay 80/100 – He’s been away from the races for over two months. His run in the Louisiana Derby was special, but so was No Le Hace’s. It’s not the premier route to Churchill, and the fact he’s done little since makes me wonder. He’s been favored in every race he’s run, all graded stakes except his maiden win.

Zanjero (80/100) – Another sleeper who’s been knocking at the door but not been let in. He came up just a tad short in the Blue Grass, and may be just figuring it all out. Too little, too late.

The others just don’t figure.

It’s a big field, with 20 separate betting interests, so the odds will be generous. I like either Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Showbiz, or Great Hunter to win; those three with Street Sense in exactas; and Stormello or Dominican as the blue plate upset specials.